The fact. From 15 July 2026 the Suez Canal Authority raised transit surcharges by around twelve points for almost every vessel class: containerships now carry a 12% surcharge, laden crude tankers went from 25% to 37%, bulk carriers from 10% to 22%, LNG carriers from 7% to 19%, general cargo from 14% to 26%. Base tariffs have not moved since 2024 — what grew is the markup. A month later, on 18 August, Maersk said “the conditions for a full return by 2026 are now in place”.
Egypt raises the price exactly as the customer comes back
It looks like commercial nonsense, and it is instead the arithmetic of a seller who knows his goods are worth something again. Through two years of diversions around the Cape of Good Hope the Canal lost most of its traffic, and Egypt lost a heavy slice of its hard-currency income with it. Now that the lines are returning, the toll is collectable again — and it is repriced before the flow settles.
The return is real but partial: roughly one third of Maersk’s normal container traffic currently moves through Suez and Bab el Mandeb. Lloyd’s List Intelligence counted 2,273 transits at the Bab el Mandeb chokepoint between 27 July and 2 August, slightly above the week before. MSC resumed transits in early August.
Not every indicator points the same way
Over the same weeks tanker traffic fell by roughly 40% since mid-July, and more ships are sailing with AIS switched off. The UN warns Yemen faces its highest risk of large-scale conflict since 2022. Carriers are returning ship by ship, on daily assessments, not with a single announcement.
The bill lands on the quay
Here is the part that matters to anyone running a terminal, and the carriers say it themselves: a sudden shift of capacity back to Suez would intensify congestion at European terminals already under strain. That is why Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have announced a gradual, coordinated return after the summer.
The Suez routeing is about two weeks shorter than the trip around Africa. That means ships arriving earlier and closer together, with volumes that bunch up instead of spreading out. The port does not gain time — it loses it. It is the same constraint we wrote about in this column: once the bottleneck moves from sea to quay, what decides the outcome is the equipment working the yard and how quickly it can be put to work.
Freight rates, meanwhile, are moving the other way: in Drewry’s 14 August reading Shanghai–Genoa fell 8% to US$5,080 per 40-foot container while transpacific rates climbed. Shorter routeings and more available capacity push rates down — the cost shifts from the ocean leg to handling ashore.
What to watch in the coming weeks
- whether Maersk’s Suez share climbs above the current third — the sign that the return is accelerating;
- whether waiting times lengthen at North European and Mediterranean ports in the following weeks;
- whether Egypt moves the surcharges again, up or down, to manage the return;
- Asia–Mediterranean rates: a continued fall while volumes rise confirms the ship is no longer the constraint.
Best Lift supplies overhauled reachstackers, empty container handlers and heavy duty forklifts, with the spare parts to keep them running when the yard is at full stretch.
Sources: Suez Canal Authority surcharges effective 15 July 2026 (Splash247, Lloyd’s List); Kuehne+Nagel citing Lloyd’s List, 18 August 2026, for Maersk’s statements and transit data; The Maritime Executive, 4 August 2026, on MSC’s return; Drewry World Container Index, 14 August 2026.
